#1 with a bullet

The Tumwater T-Birds cemented their place atop the Oly Sports power rankings with a convincing win over a really good group of Idahoans. And the Bears made a huge leap after their absolutely dominating performance over Timberline that totally flipped my thinking on this season.

Big games coming up this week include Tumwater at Columbia River, Rainier vs. North Beach and Timberline hosts Bellarmine. We might have even more movement in next week’s power rankings.

Note: This week’s ranking feature the ScoreCzar predictions for each game. Thanks as always to the wonderful ScoreCzar computers.

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1. Tumwater T-Birds (4-0)
Last week: #1 (No change)
Previous game: Beat Lake City (Idaho), 49-24
Next game: @ Columbia River (4-0) – Chieftain Stadium, Vancouver – Friday, 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: Columbia River 26, Tumwater 23

Notes:  The T-Birds passed a big test on Friday with their 49-24 win over Lake City of Couer D’Alene that wasn’t even as close as the score indicates. Big credit to their defense that stopped a high powered team that had been running all over very good teams. But now they make the drive to Vancouver to take on the #6 team in 3A, Columbia River, who have outscored their opponents 148-27 so far this season.

2. Olympia Bears (3-1 overall, 2-0 4A Narrows)
Last week: #8 (+6)
Previous game: Beat Timberline, 38-6
Next game: @ Issaquah (1-3) – Issaquah HS – Friday, 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: Olympia 31, Issaquah 6

Notes: Wow, that was an impressive performance by the Bears. They absolutely dominated Timberline from start to finish. Running back Isaiah Brooks was fantastic again and this was QB Kaden Wilson’s breakout game. And the defense didn’t allow Gabe Gutierrez and the speedy Blazers offense to do anything. It was a shocking result and I was so impressed that I had to jump the Bears all the way up to the #2 spot.

3. River Ridge Hawks (3-1 overall, 1-1 2A SPSL)
Last week: #4 (+1)
Previous game: Beat Orting, 40-31
Next game: @ White River (1-3) – White River HS – Friday, 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: River Ridge 29, White River 7

Notes: After a late loss to Franklin Pierce, the Hawks got back on track with a 40-31 win over Orting (they are 1-1 against Cardinal teams this season). They now are in a gridlock at 1-1 in the 2A SPSL one game behind Franklin Pierce and Fife with a game against 1-3 White River looming on Friday.

4. Rainier Mountaineers (3-1 overall, 2-1 in 2B Pacific)
Last week: #5 (+1)
Previous game: Beat Ocosta, 25-2
Next game: vs. North Beach (4-0) – Rainier HS – Friday, 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: North Beach 30, Rainier 0

Notes: The Mountaineers also got right this week with their 25-2 win over Ocosta. They have punished the lower ranks of the 2B Pacific league and haven’t allowed an offensive touchdown and just two safeties to South Bend and Ocosta. But next they host North Beach, who knocked off Raymond in overtime on Friday and Saturday (a bad transformer forced a delay), and are 4-0 this season.

5. Capital Cougars (2-2 overall, 1-1 3A Narrows)
Last week: #7 (+2)
Previous game: Beat Foss, 32-13
Next game: vs. Central Kitsap (2-2) – Ingersoll Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: Capital 16, Central Kitsap 15

Notes: Another team back on the right track. The Cougars took care of business against a struggling Foss team and now draw another Cougars squad in Central Kitsap that is also 2-2 but have only beaten a bad Mount Tahoma team and just barely beat 0-4 North Thurston.

6. Timberline Blazers (2-2 overall, 1-1 4A Narrows)
Last week: #2 (-4)
Previous game: Lost to Olympia 38-6
Next game: vs. Bellarmine (3-1) – South Sound Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: Bellarmine 32, Timberline 8

Notes: What in the world happened to the Blazers? I’m still struggling to process what I saw on Friday in their loss to Olympia. They were dominated in every aspect of the game and didn’t look anything like the team that nearly beat Tumwater two weeks earlier. They will have to respond in the middle of their toughest stretch. First up, Bellarmine, who is 3-1 this season with their only loss coming to Gonzaga Prep, 17-0. On the plus side for the Blazers, the combined record of the three teams the Lions have beaten is 1-11.

7. Tenino Beavers (2-2 overall, 0-2 2A/1A Evergreen)
Last week: #3 (-4)
Previous game: Lost to Elma, 44-14
Next game: @ Forks (1-3) – Forks HS – Friday, 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: Tenino 25, Forks 16

Notes: After marching up the 1A rankings and topping out at #4, the Beavers have plummeted out of the top ten with losses to Hoquiam (OK, it happens) and Elma (44-14? WHAAA?). Next up, Forks, never an easy trip.

8. Rochester Warriors (2-2 overall, 1-1 2A/1A Evergreen)
Last week: #10 (+2)
Previous game: Beat Forks, 25-18
Next game: @ Aberdeen (0-4) – Stewart Field, Aberdeen – Friday, 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: Rochester 32, Aberdeen 8

Notes: Rochester ground out another tough win with a 25-18 win over Forks. They are now 2-0 against 1A teams and 0-2 against 2A teams. On Friday, they travel to Aberdeen to take on another 2A school, albeit a bad Bobcats team that has been outscored 183-27 in four losses.

9. Black Hills Wolves (2-2 overall)
Last week: #6 (-3)
Previous game: Lost to Columbia River, 45-7
Next game: vs. WF West – Tumwater Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: WF West 21, Black Hills 20

Notes: The Wolves were beaten up pretty good in Vancouver against a highly ranked 3A team in Columbia River and now they get to open up 2A EvCo play against WF West. Every game in conference is important and none more than this game against the Bearcats.

10. Yelm Tornadoes (2-2 overall, 0-2 4A Narrows)
Last week: #8 (-2)
Previous game: Lost to South Kitsap, 20-19
Next game: @ Stadium (0-4) – Stadium Bowl, Tacoma – 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: Yelm 35, Stadium 9

Notes: Poor Yelm. Beaten on the last play of the game against South Kitsap. They fell to 0-2 in the 4A Narrows with their toughest games yet to play. But not this week, they should get a win and should have some fun against Stadium.

11. Shelton Highclimbers (1-3 overall, 0-2 3A Narrows)
Last week: #11 (No change)
Previous game: Lost to Lincoln, 62-0
Next game: vs. Wilson (4-0) – Highclimbers Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
Scoreczar prediction: Wilson 40, Shelton 3

Notes: A 62-0 loss to Lincoln isn’t surprising as the Shelton sidelines basically became a M.A.S.H. unit in the loss. Now they get another undefeated and high powered team in Wilson and might have to do it without a handful of their first string players.

12. North Thurston Rams (0-4, 0-2 3A Narrows)
Last week: #12 (No change)
Previous game: Lost to Central Kitsap, 30-27
Next game: vs. Foss (1-3) – South Sound Stadium – Thursday, 7:15 PM
Scoreczar prediction: North Thurston 23, Foss 22

Notes: The Rams are 0-4!? My alma mater is 0-4!? They came close in Silverdale but couldn’t get the job done and now face a Foss team that looks to be close to their level. Get one Rams!

The T-Birds are still #1

Last week I talked about how I expected a mediocre season from the majority of the teams in the Olympia area before the season started. Last week I said that I was pleasantly surprised at the quality so far.

That was before the locals went 4-8 over the weekend and previously unbeaten Tenino, River Ridge, Black Hills, Rainier and Yelm all dropped their first games. That sends the power rankings into disarray making it nearly impossible to move anybody up or down despite wins and losses.

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1. Tumwater T-Birds (3-0)
Last week: #1 (No change)
Previous game: Beat La Center, 41-0
Next game: vs. Lake City, ID – Tumwater Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Not to take anything away from the T-Birds, but they did mop up on a 1A school on Friday night. Granted La Center has been a good 1A team but the difference between 2A and 1A is so great, it’s hard to believe they ever play each other. But the T-Birds are 3-0 and now face what will likely be their toughest opponent until they get to the state semifinals. Lake City of Coeur D’Alene, Idaho are 4-0 and are coming off of a 56-34 dismantling of ranked Shadle Park and their star quarterback Brett Rypien.

2. Timberline Blazers (2-1 overall, 1-0 4A Narrows)
Last week: #3 (+1)
Previous game: Beat Yelm, 31-7
Next game: @ Olympia – South Sound Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: With convincing wins over River Ridge and Yelm and a shoestring loss to the mighty Tumwater T-Birds, Timberline is looking good. But now they head into the meat of the 4A Narrows League with three weeks of unbelievably tough games. First up, Olympia on Friday night at Ingersoll Stadium then Bellarmine and Gig Harbor. I hate to say a game is a must win, but this game against Oly seems like a must win with the Lions and Tides looming large.

3. Tenino Beavers (2-1 overall, 0-1 2A/1A Evergreen)
Last week: #3 (-1)
Previous game: Lost to Hoquiam, 36-21
Next game: vs. Elma – Tenino Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Really not sure what to think about the loss to Hoquiam. Just a hiccup early in the season or a sign of what is to come throughout the grind of the 2A/1A Evergreen season? They should get right against Elma this week.

4. River Ridge Hawks (2-1 overall, 0-1 2A SPSL)
Last week: #4 (No change)
Previous game: Lost to Franklin Pierce, 16-14
Next game: vs. Orting – South Sound Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: The 2A SPSL will be even more intriguing after Franklin Pierce got a late field goal to knock off the speedy Hawks on Friday night. In a league that looks to be pretty even overall, the Hawks will need a win over an Orting team that might be better than their 1-2 record indicates.

5. Rainier Mountaineers (2-1 overall, 1-1 in 2B Pacific)
Last week: #5 (No change)
Previous game: Lost to Raymond, 42-0
Next game: @ Ocosta – Ocosta HS, Westport – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Welcome back to earth, Rainier. The first two weeks gave me a lot of confidence that the Mountaineers could compete with the two big names in the 2B Pacific but a 42-0 loss to Raymond showed you where this program is probably at. Still, I think they will likely be the third best team in the league behind Raymond and North Beach. Next up they get Ocosta. They were beaten 60-0 by a team that usually plays 8-man football, Neah Bay, and lost 50-0 to Life Christian before knocking off Chief Leschi 33-18 last week.

6. Black Hills Wolves (2-1 overall)
Last week: #6 (No change)
Previous game: Lost to North Kitsap, 26-7
Next game: @ Columbia River – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: The Wolves got beat by a ranked North Kitsap team and Chase Morrow finally looked human.

7. Capital Cougars (1-2 overall, 0-1 3A Narrows)
Last week: #7 (No change)
Previous game: Lost to Lincoln, 32-10
Next game: @ Foss – Mount Tahoma Stadium, Tacoma – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: The difficulty of the first three weeks finally caught up to the Cougars as they struggled to stop the high powered Lincoln offense. They should get a little bit of a reprieve when they face Foss on Friday night.

8. Olympia Bears (2-1 overall, 1-0 4A Narrows)
Last week: #9 (+1)
Previous game: Beat South Kitsap, 34-17
Next game: vs. Timberline – Ingersoll Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: A nice win for the Bears knocking off South K in Port Orchard. Isaiah Brooks is one of the breakout stars of the season putting up 236 yards and two TDs last week. I’m looking forward to seeing how they deal with Gabe Gutierrez and Timberline on Friday night.

9. Yelm Tornadoes (2-1 overall, 0-1 4A Narrows)
Last week: #8 (-1)
Previous game: Lost to Timberline, 31-7
Next game: vs. South Kitsap – Yelm HS – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: The Tornadoes have started quickly for three straight years but once they hit league play, it all comes crashing down. Facing Timberline in the league opener didn’t help. They hope to rebound at home against South Kitsap.

10. Rochester Warriors (1-2 overall, 1-0 2A/1A Evergreen)
Last week: #12 (+2)
Previous game: Beat Elma, 18-14
Next game: vs. Forks – Rochester HS – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Hard to get too excited about 2A Rochester beating 1A Elma 18-14 but a win is a win and Wyatt Singer had an outstanding game going for over 230 yards with two touchdowns.

11. Shelton Highclimbers (1-2 overall, 0-1 3A Narrows)
Last week: #10 (-1)
Previous game: Lost to Foss, 26-13
Next game: @ Lincoln – Lincoln Bowl, Tacoma – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: The Highclimbers were competitive in this game and that’s a big difference from where they were last year. Still, the play calling was frustrating and the surprising lack of urgency at the end of the game was a head scratcher. They could have beaten Foss if not for some key penalties. They next head to Lincoln, which could be ugly.

12. North Thurston Rams (0-3, 0-1 3A Narrows)
Last week: #11 (-1)
Previous game: Lost to Wilson, 47-21
Next game: @ Central Kitsap – Silverdale Stadium – Thursday, 7:15 PM

Notes: North Thurston looked like they had turned things around after one half of football against Wilson taking a 21-6 lead into the locker room. But the Rams from Tacoma reeled off 41 unanswered points and the Rams of Lacey fell to 0-3 for the first time since 1984. 1984?!