T-Birds have a stranglehold on #1

Tumwater has a lock on #1 and even if they drop a game to either River Ridge or Black Hills in the next two weeks, they will probably go the entire season as the top team in the Oly Sports Power Rankings.

After that, though, it’s a big question mark. Timberline and Capital are riding the longest winning streaks of the remaining teams with three each and end up at #2 and #3 despite long losing streaks of their own. Rochester would be #2 but they dropped a game to Montesano two weeks ago.

All but three teams are still technically in the playoff hunt but only five teams actually have a legitimate shot at going to the postseason. The playoff picture breaks down like this (yes, it’s a bit murky and wishy-washy):

In: Tumwater, Rochester
Almost in: Timberline
Good chance to be in: Capital, Tenino
Possibly in with a little help: North Thurston
Chances are extremely slim: Black Hills, Olympia, River Ridge
Out: Yelm, Rainier, Shelton

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1. Tumwater T-Birds (7-0, 3-0 2A EvCo)
Two weeks ago: #1 (No change)
Previous game: Tumwater 59, Centralia 20
Next game: vs. River Ridge (4-3) – Tumwater Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Not surprisingly, the T-Birds ran past Centralia and have a stranglehold on the top spot in the Oly Sports power rankings and moved to the #1 spot in the coaches poll last week. What is really impressive about Tumwater is that they have had a different star nearly every single week. Last week it was Christian Cummings again. Who will it be this week?

2. Timberline Blazers (4-3, 3-1 3A Narrows)
Two weeks ago: #6 (+4)
Previous game: Timberline 60, Mount Tahoma 0
Next game: vs. North Thurston (4-3) – South Sound Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: The Blazers are a streaky team this year, for sure, and are back in the #2 spot in the power rankings thanks to a three game losing streak and the struggles of other area teams. Timberline lost three straight games but have won three in a row beating Lincoln, Foss and Mount Tahoma with North Thurston and Shelton left to play. And thanks to Foss knocking off Wilson and the big Lincoln/Wilson game coming up on Friday and a key Foss/Lincoln game to close out the season, the Blazers could very well end up winning the Narrows.

3. Capital Cougars (3-4, 3-1 2A EvCo)
Two weeks ago: #7 (+4)
Previous game: Capital 39, Black Hills 7
Next game: vs. WF West (6-1) – Ingersoll Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: After a killer opening four weeks of the season that saw them take on three 4A schools and Tumwater, the Cougars are as hot as can be outscoring their opponents 136-20 over the last three games and now find themselves as the odds on favorite to take the third and final playoff spot in the 2A EvCo and could actually end up taking the #2 spot with a win over WF West this week.

4. Rochester Warriors (5-2, 4-1 1A Evergreen)
Two weeks ago: #3 (-1)
Previous game: Rochester 35, Forks 7
Next game: vs. Stevenson (2-5) – Rochester Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Rochester rebounded convincingly with a 35-7 win over Forks after dropping a game to Montesano two weeks ago and they sit half a game ahead of the rest of the pack in the 1A Evergreen at 4-1 with a non-conference game coming up on Friday against Stevenson. The Warriors have complete control their own destiny in the conference and would take home the title with a win at Tenino next week. Lose to Tenino and either Elma or the Beavers would take home the top spot.

5. Tenino Beavers (3-4, 3-1 1A Evergreen)
Two weeks ago: #5 (No change)
Previous game: Tenino 26, Montesano 6
Next game: vs. Hoquiam (2-5) – Tenino Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Crazy season in the 1A Evergreen and Tenino did something they haven’t done in 17 seasons: beat Montesano. And they did so handily and have given themselves an opportunity to win the conference. First they need to beat Hoquiam at home on Friday, then knock off Rochester on November 1st and hope that Elma falters against either Forks or Montesano.

6. North Thurston (4-3, 2-2 3A Narrows)
Two weeks ago: #10 (+4)
Previous game: North Thurston 24, Shelton 6
Next game: @ North Thurston (4-3) – South Sound Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: The Rams snapped their three game skid against Shelton thanks to 121 yards and three touchdowns from Hayden Maliska. They didn’t look great doing so, but they did get the job done. They are still in the playoff hunt and are actually in pretty good shape despite sitting in fifth place. Even if they lose to Timberline, they get winless Mount Tahoma in the last game of the year and if Lincoln beats Foss on the final day, the Rams and Falcons would finish tied for the fourth and last spot with the Rams holding the tiebreaker. UPDATE: I was wrong. I forgot the Narrows has just three playoff spots this year. The Rams need to beat Timberline this week, for sure.

7. Black Hills (3-4, 1-2 2A EvCo)
Two weeks ago: #4 (-3)
Previous game: Capital 39, Black Hills 7
Next game: @ Centralia (2-5) – Tiger Stadium, Centralia – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Black Hills is still in the playoff hunt just a game behind third place Capital and likely will sit tied with the Cougars at 2-2 after this week. But the Cougars have the tiebreaker with their 39-7 win over the Wolves so it would take a massive, shocking upset in the Pioneer Bowl and Capital would have to lay an egg against River Ridge for Dominic Yarrington’s squad to see the postseason.

8. Olympia Bears (4-3, 2-2 4A Narrows)
Two weeks ago: #2 (-6)
Previous game: Gig Harbor 27, Olympia 21
Next game: @ Bellarmine (6-1) – Memorial Stadium, Tacoma – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Wow, speaking of upsets. The Bears season comes down to having to upset Bellarmine in Tacoma on Friday night. Even then, they would still need to beat Yelm in week nine and get some help to make the playoffs. Derrick Becker threw for over 300 yards in their loss to Gig Harbor but it wasn’t enough to overcome allowing 310 rushing yards to the Tides’ Sterling Brown.

9. River Ridge (4-3, 1-2 2A EvCo)
Two weeks ago: #8 (-1)
Previous game: WF West 44, River Ridge 21
Next game: @ Tumwater (7-0) – Tumwater Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: I guess somebody had to draw the short stick in the 2A EvCo and that just happens to be River Ridge. They played WF West last week, get Tumwater this week and finish with Capital on November 1st. They did play a really good first half against the Bearcats but couldn’t stop Tanner Gueller the rest of the way.

10. Yelm Tornadoes (3-4, 1-3 4A Narrows)
Two weeks ago: #9 (-1)
Previous game: Bellarmine 53, Yelm 14
Next game: @ Gig Harbor (6-1) – Roy Andersen Field, Gig Harbor – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Jason Ronquillo’s Tornadoes have struggled in the meat of the 4A Narrows League dropping three straight to the Kitsaps and Bellarmine and still have Gig Harbor and Olympia on the docket and easily could finish 1-5 in league play this season.

11. Rainier Mountaineers (1-6, 0-5 1A Evergreen)
Two weeks ago: #11 (No change)
Previous game: Hoquiam 46, Rainier 9
Next game: vs. Montesano (3-4) – Rainier HS – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Six straight losses for Rainier with an angry Montesano team coming to town this week and a trip to Vancouver to face Seton Catholic in their season finale. Still a much improved team over last season.

12. Shelton Highclimbers (0-7, 0-4 3A Narrows)
Two weeks ago: #12 (No change)
Previous game: North Thurston 24, Shelton 6
Next game: vs. Mount Tahoma (0-6) – Highclimber Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM

Notes: Shelton played relatively tough against North Thurston, all things considered. That might be more of a comment on the Rams than the Highclimbers, though. Six offensive touchdowns all season long but that number could easily double this week against winless Mount Tahoma, who have scored just 12 points all year long.

Tie-13. Northwest Christian Navigators (0-0)/Pope John Paul II Eagles (0-0)
Two weeks ago: Unranked
Previous Navigators game: Pe Ell 55, Northwest Christian 6 (11/5/2011)
Previous Eagles game: Never played
Next games: Idle

Notes: I didn’t want to rank Shelton last for another week. Yes Northwest Christian has lost 12 straight games, but then again, they haven’t lost in nearly two years. PJPII will probably never lose a football game.