Seven straight wins, two weeks on top of the power rankings for the T-Birds

Timberline shocks North Thurston and causes a little bit of movement in the power rankings ahead of an important week of games with a lot of playoff spots and seeding on the line. Here’s a look at how the area teams compare heading into the last week of the regular season in my highly unscientific power rankings, complete with highly scientific ScoreCzar predictions…

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1. Tumwater T-Birds (7-1)
Last week: #1 (No change)
Previous game: Tumwater 27, River Ridge 12
Next game: vs. Black Hills (4-4) – Tumwater Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Tumwater 27, Black Hills 10

Notes: With the win over River Ridge, Tumwater ran their winning streak to seven games and secured the 2A Evergreen Conference title. Now, can they end the regular season at #1 in the Oly Sports power rankings? They just have to get past rival Black Hills on Friday night.

2. Timberline Blazers (7-1)
Last week: #2 (No change)
Previous game: Timberline 24, North Thurston 0
Next game: vs. Shelton (7-1) – South Sound Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Timberline 26, Shelton 24

Notes: Without sophomore QB Gabe Gutierrez, the Blazers shocked everybody by easily handling North Thurston to run their winning streak to five games and put them in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed out of the 3A Narrows League. All they have to do is not lose by more than 13 points to Shelton and the will secure that #1 seed. A win would give them the title outright but a loss would drop them into a tie with point differential being the tiebreaker.

3. Shelton Highclimbers (7-1)
Last week: #4 (+1)
Previous game: Shelton 55, Mount Tahoma 7
Next game: @ Timberline (7-1) – South Sound Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Timberline 26, Shelton 24

Notes: The Highclimbers easily knocked off Mount Tahoma and got the passing game involved in the process, an aspect of their game that they will desperately need to be OK against Timberline and in the playoffs. But Shelton has a daunting task ahead of them, they have to beat Timberline by at least 14 points to get the #1 seed out of the 3A Narrows League. If they lose or win by less than 14, they will get the #3 seed and the difference between the #1 and #3 seed is huge. #1 seed hosts the #6 seed out of the Metro League while the #3 seed travels to the Metro’s #2 seed.

4. Capital Cougars (6-2)
Last week: #5 (+1)
Previous game: Capital 42, WF West 14
Next game: vs. River Ridge (5-3) – Ingersoll Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Capital 28, River Ridge 8

Notes: Turns out my proclamation on Friday that Capital clinched the 2nd spot out of the 2A EvCo was wrong and despite a convincing win over WF West, the Cougars still have one game left to win before clinching a playoff spot. Assuming WF West beats winless Centralia, Capital has to beat River Ridge on Friday night at home or else face the prospect of a three way Kansas tiebreaker on Tuesday for one of two playoff spots available. (I’m not going to lie, I’m kind of rooting for the Kansas tiebreaker)

5. North Thurston Rams (6-2)
Last week: #3 (-2)
Previous game: Timberline 24, North Thurston 0
Next game: @ Mount Tahoma (0-8) – Mount Tahoma Stadium, Tacoma – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: North Thurston 39, Mount Tahoma 0

Notes: What happened to the Rams? Neither the defense nor the offense showed up against Timberline on Friday night and they dropped their second game of the season and their first game in the 3A Narrows League. Assuming they beat winless Mount Tahoma this week, the Rams can claim a share of the Narrows title with a Shelton win over Timberline. But the Rams cannot get the #1 seed, the best they can do is #2. If Timberline wins or Shelton wins by less than 14 points, the Rams are the #2 seed. But if Shelton wins by more than 13, the Rams will be the #3 seed. You may ask why the Rams are #5 while Shelton is #3 despite losing to North Thurston, it’s simply because the Highclimbers still have a chance at that #1 seed.

6. Tenino Beavers (5-3)
Last week: #6 (No change)
Previous game: Hoquiam 41, Tenino 3
Next game: @ Rochester (2-6) – Rochester HS – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Tenino 30, Rochester 9

Notes: Despite dropping three straight games and two straight league games, Tenino has qualified for the playoffs and should be he #3 seed out of the 1A SWW Evergreen. They can still get the #2 seed but only if they beat Rochester (they should), Elma beats Montesano and they win a coin toss to determine the seeding between the three tied teams.

7. River Ridge Hawks (5-3)
Last week: #7 (No change)
Previous game: Tumwater 27, River Ridge 12
Next game: @ Capital (6-2) – Ingersoll Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Capital 28, River Ridge 8

Notes: Two playoff spots, three teams. Assuming WF West beats winless Centralia, River Ridge has to beat Capital on Friday night to keep their season alive. They would force a three way tie for second and the three teams would take part in Kansas tiebreaker on Tuesday night.

8. Olympia Bears (3-5)
Last week: #8 (No change)
Previous game: Bellarmine 21, Olympia 0
Next game: @ Yelm – Yelm Tornadoes Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Olympia 23, Yelm 13

Notes: Big game in Yelm this week between two perplexing teams. The 4A Narrows League playoff scenario is confusing and complicated. See The Olympian for the full scenario.

9. Yelm Tornadoes (4-4)
Last week: #10 (+1)
Previous game: Yelm 17, Gig Harbor 12
Next game: vs. Olympia (3-5) – Yelm Tornadoes Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Olympia 23, Yelm 13

Notes: Yelm picked up a less than convincing win over Gig Harbor this week and broke their four game losing streak and kept themselves in the 4A Narrows League playoff race. Though the playoff scenario is complicated (see Olympia) the scenario for Yelm is simple: win and possibly keep your season alive or go home.

10. Black Hills Wolves (4-4)
Last week: #9 (-1)
Previous game: Black Hills 42, Centralia 17
Next game: @ Tumwater (7-1) – Tumwater Stadium – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Tumwater 27, Black Hills 10

Notes: Black Hills picked up their first league win with an easy win over winless Centralia, but the Wolves are still out of the playoff picture and have just one game left, and they would like nothing more than to take home the Pioneer Bowl trophy in upset fashion.

11. Rochester Warriors (2-6)
Last week: #11 (No change)
Previous game: Rochester 41, Stevenson 14
Next game: vs. Tenino (5-3) – Rochester HS – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Tenino 30, Rochester 9

Notes: Rochester picked up their second win of the season knocking off Stevenson on Friday night. Now they get a Tenino team that has only scored 16 points in their last three games. Can they pull of the upset against a struggling team? Would really give them a lot of momentum heading into the off season.

12. Rainier Mountaineers (0-8)
Last week: #12 (No change)
Previous game: Montesano 70, Rainier 0
Next game: vs. Seton Catholic (1-7) – Rainier HS – Friday, 7:00 PM
ScoreCzar prediction: Seton Catholic 31, Rainier 22

Notes: Game of the week in the South Sound? Winless Rainier has a good chance to get their first win of the season against 1-7 Seton Catholic on Friday night. The two teams have been outscored by a combined 859-170 this season so it should be a really close game between two evenly matched teams needing a win to go out on a happy note.